ABOUT THE MODEL
BUILT BY JOACHIM KLEMENT OF PANMURE LIBERUM.
BASED ON HOFFMANN, GING & RAMASAMY (2002).
THE MODEL EXPLAINS 55% OF VARIANCE BETWEEN TEAMS.
THE REMAINING 45% IS NOISE — ENCODED IN σ=0.28.
BASED ON HOFFMANN, GING & RAMASAMY (2002).
THE MODEL EXPLAINS 55% OF VARIANCE BETWEEN TEAMS.
THE REMAINING 45% IS NOISE — ENCODED IN σ=0.28.
FORMULA
S = 0.45·FIFA
+ 0.20·GDP
+ 0.15·TEMP
+ 0.15·POP
+ 0.05·HOST
+ 0.20·GDP
+ 0.15·TEMP
+ 0.15·POP
+ 0.05·HOST
P(WIN) = Φ((S_A − S_B) / 0.28) × (1 − DRAW)
FACTOR WEIGHTS
FIFA RANKING
45%
NATL WEALTH
20%
CLIMATE
15%
POPULATION
15%
HOME EDGE
5%
“I BUILT THIS MODEL TO PROVE ECONOMETRICS
CAN'T PREDICT FOOTBALL. THEN IT DID.”
— JOACHIM KLEMENT, PANMURE LIBERUM
CAN'T PREDICT FOOTBALL. THEN IT DID.”
— JOACHIM KLEMENT, PANMURE LIBERUM